Sleepers In Kentucky Derby
Maximum Security (9-1). Maximum Security isn’t your traditional sleeper. He has been listed among. Kentucky Derby Sleepers. By: Aaron Halterman. Published on February 17th, 2012. Over the past two weeks DRF.com has given you two “sleepers” for the Kentucky Derby, but the two horses they have given out are really not sleepers at all.
The Run For the Roses arrives on May 5th, giving horse racing bettors roughly two weeks to finalize their bets for this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Leg one of the 2018 Triple Crown promises to excite, as a handful of horses push through the pack in an attempt to make history.
The beauty of the 2018 Kentucky Derby might be that is feels completely wide open. Usually, a consensus favorite has emerged by now, yet experts could argue for several horses to take first place.
Maybe that was going to be McKinzie, but now that Bob Baffert’s colt has been ruled out of the Triple Crown, this race is being looked at quite differently.
Perhaps that calms talk of a Triple Crown sweep, but it sure makes for interesting Kentucky Derby betting.
That’s to be taken two different ways, too.
Not only are bettors arguably getting insane value for the top favorites going into this year’s Kentucky Derby, but if they take a shot on a viable sleeper, their profit only balloons.
The Favorites
Bovada and other horse racing betting sites are still offering odds for 25+ horses for this huge event.
Everyone knows the field will shrink to 20 before the action gets started, which means there is still time to take advantage of crazy value from top to bottom.
Everyone here offers amazing value to win the Kentucky Derby outright, while that isn’t even factoring in other horses with compelling odds like Magnum Moon (+800 at Bovada), Good Magic (+750 at My Bookie) or Vino Rosso (+950 at Sportsbetting.ag).
This is a long line of talented horses with high-level training that absolutely have an argument to be picked to win this year.
The crazy part is without a clear-cut favorite right now, you could really piece together a case for horses with even longer odds to run away with the Triple Crown’s first stanza.
The Sleepers
What I find interesting is how much value bettors are looking at right now at the top portion of the field.
The field of 20 isn’t set yet and horses can be pulled or brought in within the next two weeks, but that probably isn’t going to change the obvious; nobody really knows for sure who will win the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Even weirder is the fact that there are so many “favorites” that some very interesting horses like Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic are offering insane value.
While you’re probably better off lingering up top where the horse racing experts are, I still think there is a reason to believe someone nobody is really discussing could shock the world.
Here are five 2018 Kentucky Derby sleepers you may want to keep an eye (and bet)on:
My Boy Jack (+3500 at Sportsbetting.ag)
Shopping for value ahead of any big horse racing event is pretty key. My Boy Jack has solid odds just about everywhere, but you’re only getting him at a +2000 price at most horse racing sportsbooks.
At Sportsbetting.ag you’re getting a massive discount at +3500 and this may actually be a horse to fear in this race.
Nobody is going into May thinking My Boy Jack is a real threat to win, but with victories at Lexington and the Southwest Stakes, this could be a horse to wager on. Whether that’s a straight-up win or for My Boy Jack to place is up to you.
Solomini (+3000 at Sportsbetting.ag)
Here’s another horse that isn’t insanely high in anyone’s Kentucky Derby rankings this year, but isn’t exactly being ignored by the betting community, either.
You’ll find pricing hovering around the +2000-2500 range at most sites, but Sportsbetting.ag again offers awesome upside with inflated odds.
This Bob Baffert trainee has just one big win under his belt but has still fared very well against some of the best horses on the circuit.
More specifically, Solomoni finished third recently at the Arkansas Derby behind Magnum Moon, while it’s finished third or better in every single race it’s competed in.
Other races include losses to Good Magic, McKinzie, and Bolt d’Oro.
Obviously, Solomini getting big wins would vault it up the rankings, but the fact that this horse was at least in the thick of things is what makes it an exciting bet at +3000.
Noble Indy (+3000 at My Bookie)
As you work your way down, you’re dealing with true long shots.
Noble Indy is still a horse the majority of the top horse racing experts will at least discuss, though, and that’s because this Todd Pletcher gem has been highly competitive in limited action.
It’s resume really isn’t bad, as Noble Indy has scored three wins, with it’s worst loss coming in a third-place finish behind Bravazo in the Rise Star race.
Noble Indy’s crowning achievement thus far was a nice win at this year’s Louisiana Derby, where he showcased the ability to edge out some quality competition such as My Boy Jack and Lone Sailor.
This is a horse that would be further down the list (and rightfully so when you look at the odds), but it returns solid value and has to be on your radar.
Hofburg (+4000 at Sportsbetting.ag)
You can locate even more betting value via Hofburg, who has been discussed as a potential sleeper since finishing second to Audible at the 2018 Florida Derby.
Hofburg wasn’t able to catch Audible in the end, but this was still an impressive run and perhaps showed he’s a lot closer to one of the top Kentucky Derby favorites.
I’m not sure I can take one solid race and bet hard on Hofburg, but this is a talented horse that some experts think highly of. After pushing Audible in a big race, it’s at least worth a flier at this price.
Flameaway (+4500 at Sportsbetting.ag)
The last Kentucky Derby sleeper I really have my eye on is Flameaway, who is another horse that some experts seem to be ignoring.
I’m really not sure why, seeing as Flameaway finished second at two big races this year, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby.
Those are two competitive runs in prestigious events, while it’s certainly worth noting that Flameaway also has a few big wins (namely the Sam F. Davis event) under it’s belt.
Consistency has been an issue for Flameaway (8th at the Breeders Cup Juvenile), but this is a horse that has shown strong against the likes of Good Magic and Vino Rosso.
It might not be a lock to win, but based on its recent competitiveness, it’s not a bad play at +4500.
Who Will Win the 2018 Kentucky Derby?
I’m not going to pretend to know who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. If Vegas clearly doesn’t have a clue, the entire process gets flipped on its side and it’s difficult to process the field.
That being said, I’m not overly into any of the bigger sleepers. If you want to take a flier here or there, yes, these sleepers do project as interesting bets. However, you want a wager that offers safety and upside.
Not only does trainer Mick Ruis offer a fun backstory, but I love the value associated with this horse.
There are other horses graded ahead of Bolt d’Oro right now, but all this horse has done is excelled in high-level events.
It’s worst finish was a third-place run at the Breeders Cup Juvenile last November, yet that came against quality competition in Good Magic and Solomoni.
Another second place run at a highly competitive Santa Anita Derby saw him finish behind only Justify, who is seen by many to be the top favorite going into May.
In its other races, Bolt d’Oro nabbed wins, the most impressive of which came at the Frontrunner Stakes in 2017 and the San Felipe Stakes in March.
Churchill Downs
Bolt d’Oro isn’t perfect, but he’s battled the best competition and has yet to perform really poorly. With a fun story backing this horse and extremely competitive odds (+900 at Bovada being the best), that is probably where I’d be putting my cash.
Sleepers In Kentucky Derby Races
That being said, I can’t stress enough how wide open this year’s Kentucky Derby seems to be. Things could change within the new couple of weeks, but it’s likely that we go in without a clear favorite.
Kentucky Derby Results
While that makes the betting process harder than you’d want, it at least makes for a very interesting race and ultimately, must-see television.