1. How To Handicap Football Games
2. How To Handicap Football
3. Handicap Football Prediction
4. Handicap Football Today Live

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Before we get into detail about handicapping football, we’d like to
start by making two important points.

• Handicapping is not as complicated as might think.
• Handicapping takes time and effort.

There are two common misconceptions about handicapping.
One is that you have to be some kind of genius to do it, and this
is completely false. That’s why we’ve made the first point above.
Many people don’t even both learning how to handicap football, for the sole reason that they think it’s too
complicated

The other misconception is that handicapping is just about following some kind of set formula or system that
basically tells you what to bet on. This is not the case at all. While you can develop specific formulas or
systems to help with your decision making process, there is more to handicapping than just that. It doesn’t
have to be difficult, as we’ve just explained, but it does take time and effort. There is a lot to assess and
analyze if you are going to handicap football games effectively.

In this article provide the information and advice that can help you become a successful football handicapper.
We start by explaining exactly what sports handicapping is, and then look at how it can help you when
betting on football. We then provide some tips and advice for how to go about developing your own
handicapping techniques.

What is Sports Handicapping?

It’s difficult to provide a precise definition of sports handicapping. It’s not about doing any one single thing, or
following a specific set of rules. Handicapping is essentially a combination of processes and techniques that
can help you to make better decisions when betting on sports.The basic idea is to consider all the factors
that can affect the outcome of a sports event, and then determine exactly what effect each one might have.
Doing this gives should give a clearer picture of what to bet on.

There isn’t really a “right” way to handicap sports. There are some general principles you should adhere to
but you ultimately need to develop your own methods. It’s part science, and part art form. Some of the
processes and techniques are purely mathematical, while others are subjective and opinion based.

We cover some of the mathematical techniques, that apply to all forms of sport, in our article on the basics
of handicapping the market. Reading this article will give you a solid grasp of the more fundamental
aspects of handicapping.

The subjective aspects of handicapping are the hardest to master. There are many books and websites that
contain information on certain methods you can use to handicap sports, but the problem with using methods
developed by other people is that they might not work for you. You ultimately need to develop your own
methods, as that’s the only way to be truly successful. In any case, you can be almost certain that the most
effective handicapping methods are not published anywhere.

That’s why this article is focused on teaching you all the things you need to consider rather than just giving
you a fixed guide to follow. Actually learning how to handicap properly for yourself, and not just relying on
doing what others to tell you what to do, will be far more beneficial in the long run.

How Does Handicapping Help?

As we’ve already mentioned, handicapping can help you to decide what to bet on. That’s pretty much its sole
purpose, in fact. The only real aim when betting is to make good decisions, and if you can consistently do
that then you will almost certainly make money in the long run.

Making a good betting decision is not quite as simple as predicting what’s going to happen though. Obviously
you need to make accurate predictions if you’re going to be successful, but there’s more to it than that. You
need to think about how likely a possible outcome is, and then compare that likelihood to the implied
probability of the relevant odds. This is how you identify value, which is arguably the most important part of
sports betting.

If you’re not familiar with the concept of value, please read our article explaining the roles of probability
and value in sports betting.

You should understand that when bookmakers set the odds and lines for a football game, or any sports event,
they are effectively creating a market. Your goal is to find out where the value lies in that market. To explain
this further, let’s use an example. We’re looking at an upcoming game where the Kansas City Chiefs are
playing at the New England Patriots. The odds are as follows.

The Patriots are the favorite here, and our initial instinctive view is that they’re going to cover the spread.
Now, the average recreational bettor would think no further than this. Having taken a view, they’ll simply back
that view by placing the relevant wager. So, assuming they had the same view as you, they’d place a wager
on the Patriots to cover.

They may well prove to be right, and they’d take their payout and be happy that they won. There’s nothing
wrong with this at all, but it’s not an approach that will be successful in the long run. They haven’t given any
consideration to whether their wager had any value at all.

If you were handicapping this game properly, then taking the view that the Patriots are going to cover would
only be the first step. The next step would be to work out how likely they are to cover. There are numerous
ways you could do this, but let’s say that you’ve developed a relatively simple handicapping technique based
on yards per point. This works by giving each team a rating based on their yards per point statistics, which
you calculate as follows.

Step #1

Calculate a team’s offensive points per yard by dividing their offensive yards gained by the
number of points scored.

Step #2

Calculate a team’s defensive points per yard by dividing their yards given up by the number of
points conceded.

Step #3

Subtract defensive points per yard from offensive points per yard for a rating.

Your technique involves then calculating the difference between the ratings of two teams. In this case the
rating for the Patriots is +2.3, and for the Chiefs it’s -0.7. So the difference is +3 in favor of the Patriots.

Let’s assume that you’ve carried out research that shows that teams with a +3 advantage or greater in this
rating win by three points or more 65% of the time. So there’s a (theoretical) 65% chance that a wager on the
Patriots will win or push, and the implied probability of the odds is 52.38%. When the chances of a wager
winning is greater than the implied probability of the odds, value exists. So in this case backing the Patriots to
cover would be the right thing to do.

Please note that the data used in the above example is hypothetical. It’s purely to illustrate how handicapping
techniques to make good betting decisions and spot where the value is. Now that we’ve explained that, it’s
time to look at exactly how you can develop your own football handicapping techniques.

What is Sports Handicapping?

If you’re going to have any chance of becoming a successful football handicapper, you have to know your
stuff. You can’t expect to accurately assess what’s going to happen to in games, or over the course of the
season, if you don’t fundamentally understand the game. So here’s some initial tips that you really should
follow.

How To Handicap Football Games

1. Watch as many games as you can
2. Read games reports
3. Learn about the teams, players and coaches

If you’re a major football fan then then you probably already do the first two things on this list, and you’re
probably already familiar with many of the teams, player and coaches too. If you’re not, though, then you
should to get into the habit of watching games and reading match reports as soon as you can. This will give
you real insight into the sport and its participants, and that insight will prove invaluable when trying to
handicap games.

This is an ongoing process too. A lot of things change every season, you so need to stay up to date. This is
one reason why we recommend learning how to use the off-season effectively when betting on the NFL. You
want to be aware of roster changes and coaching changes, and you want to start analyzing the potential
effects of them as early as possible. A new star quarterback, for example, could make a team much stronger
for the upcoming season. A new coach may mean an entirely new playing style, which may make a team
more effective against certain opposition but less effective against others.

You also need to understand the various factors that can affect the outcome of football games, and the
important team and player statistics that can be used in handicapping. Here are just a few examples of these,
in no particular order.

• Motivation
• Schedules
• Injuries
• Weather
• Current Form
• Home Advantage
• Yards per attempt
• Passing yards
• Rushing yards
• Yards per carry
• Sacks per game
• Turnover differential

For a more detailed look at all of these, and more, you should read our article on the factors and stats to
consider when handicapping football. It’s only with a real understanding of them that you’ll be able to develop
and use your own handicapping techniques effectively.

Once you have that understanding, the work really begins. We mentioned earlier that our goal is to teach
you how to handicap for yourself, rather than just tell you what to do, and we should now explain further
why this. It’s not because we don’t want to give you the best chance of making money, as that’s precisely
what we ARE trying to do. We could simply share the techniques that are working for us currently, but there’s
a major problem with doing that.

It’s really hard to find value in football betting markets, because the bookmakers are very good at what they
do. Take the example we gave earlier of using yards per point stats to handicap point spreads. If such a
simple system was able to consistently beat the bookmakers, they’d soon work it out for themselves. Then
the lines they set would take that into account, so the technique probably wouldn’t be useful anymore. You’d
have to look at other factors and stats too, and use yards per point in conjunction with them.

The only way to consistently make money from handicapping is to consistently stay one step ahead of the
bookmakers. That’s incredibly tough to do, and there’s certainly so no easy step by step guide we can give
you for doing it. It absolutely can be done, but you HAVE to put in a lot of effort. You need to do a lot of
research and analysis, look for trends and patterns, come up with theories, and then put those theories to
the test. And, when you find something that works, keeping fine-tuning it.

That’s really what successful football handicapping comes down to. There’s no magic system that’s going to
tell you what to bet on each week. It’s about working hard enough so that you have the ability to spot when
there is value in market, based on your own analysis and assessments. If you’re patient and committed, then
you will find that value.

Doc's Sports Service is the most trusted and well-respected sports information company in the United States, and below you will find 12 NFL handicapping tips that are as unique as our diverse group.

Doc's Sports has a veteran team of NFL handicappers doing some of the most in-depth NFL handicapping in the country, and providing winning NFL picks on a weekly basis, and our service is second-to-none in terms of both results and customer relations. In our fifth decade of existence, Doc's Sports is the gold standard in the sports handicapping industry.

We offer our clients top NFL predictions at one fair price. Our NFL handicappers release a full slate of NFL picks, which come with Doc's expert college football picks, at 5 p.m. CST each Thursday. Every one of our NFL handicappers has a different style, but all have enjoyed vast success in professional football.

We offer many packages to accommodate anyone's needs - from one-day big play picks to one-week packages to our comprehensive full-season package.

All of our NFL Handicapping picks come with a rotation number, unit ratings ( Click Here to read more about our unique Unit System for the best money management and be sure to check out Allen Eastman's famous 'NFL 411' NFL football betting system )

Here are 12 NFL handicapping tips from our team of experts:

DOC'S SPORTS - NFL is one of the hardest sports to handicap because of the amount of information available on each of the 32 teams. One of the best things to remember when handicapping NFL games is that all players are professionals and there just is not much carryover from week to week. Oftentimes a team will get blown out the prior week, and a novice gambler will go against them the next week expecting a similar performance. That is usually a bad bet as professional players' pride sets in and the team plays much better the following week. Often you get an over-adjusted line, and I always like to play a team coming off an embarrassing performance the week prior.

ROBERT FERRINGO - I absolutely love betting the NFL. A lot of people think it is one of the hardest sports to crack and they try to make it a lot more complicated than it needs to be. My main tip to anyone that is just starting out betting football is don't worry about the spread - just pick a winner. Too often people talk themselves out of a good bet because they don't like the spread. Over a 10-year period from 2004-2014 the NFL favorites went 1283-1210-67 against the spread. That's almost exactly 50 percent (49.5 to be exact). However, the final score of NFL games differed from the spread by more than 10 points a game, and the outright winner of the game covered the spread 84.1 percent of the time. That means that the number only comes into play once every six or seven games (or about twice a week). Don't bet an underdog that you think can 'keep it close,' and don't get scared off a favorite because the line is 8.5 and you wanted 7.0. If you pick the outright winner there's a great chance your bet will cover. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

ALLEN EASTMAN - I have been betting NFL football for over 30 years, and I have turned a profit in 17 of my last 21 NFL seasons. For me the most important tip I can give someone trying to beat the NFL is that you need to become a good oddsmaker. Each week I use all of the statistics and information that I have available to set my own spreads and totals for all of the games. Then I see the numbers that the oddsmakers put out and I compare them to my line. The games with the biggest difference are where I find the most value. Of course, it helps to have something as great as the NFL 411 System to rely on (60.7 percent winners the last seven years)! But over time I've found that my numbers are usually stronger than the oddsmakers, so I trust my own numbers. You should do the same.

RAPHAEL ESPARZA - Look for the second batch of line movements. Most oddsmakers put out NFL numbers around the time of the late Sunday NBC game. Right away the numbers will move, and after the late Sunday NFL game ends usually bettors are ready to bet the next week of football games. Sometime between Wednesday and Thursday the NFL numbers will generally move again, and that is when I really start looking into the games I have circled. Sometimes the line movement helps and sometimes the line movement kills me, but at least I can recognize how the number will move throughout the weekend. Also, waiting for that second line movement will tell you things such as how the weather will be that Sunday, and the injury list will be clarified a bit better than earlier in the week. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

STRIKE POINT SPORTS - Some teams in the NFL just do not play well as a favorite. It could be that they are overrated in the eyes of the public or it could be poor coaching or inconsistent quarterback play. But there are some teams that you want to stay far away from when they are dressed up in the role of the big favorite. A perfect example is the Dallas Cowboys with Tony Romo at quarterback and Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett as coach. Over the last five years the Cowboys are just 8-24 ATS as a home favorite and 7-9 as a road favorite. That's a horrendous 15-33 mark when laying points! Some other teams like the Giants, Dolphins and Ravens also perform much better when they are taking points rather than laying out. Don't try too hard to buck the odds with these teams. Either stay away completely or hold your nose and take the points.

INDIAN COWBOY - We want to focus and share one main theory that we use in handicapping the NFL. It is called the 'active underdog over theory'. The active underdog theory is essentially taking an underdog that you believe will be an active underdog (either due to revenge against a team from an earlier season loss, coming off a double-digit loss, losing outright to a team they were heavily favored against, etc.) and taking the 'over' with this team. So you expect a team that is looking to exceed expectations over the line currently constructed for them. So anytime that you think a team that is an underdog is going to exceed expectations against a team then take the 'over'. This is because if the underdog is highly motivated as we discussed for revenge, coming off a double-digit loss, or losing outright to a team they were favored straight up against, then certainly they will be motivated to exceed the amount of points they are expected to score in their next game. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

JASON SHARPE - When it comes to winning at betting on the NFL, the most important thing you want to do is to try and think outside the box. The NFL betting market is considered by most to be the toughest for a sports bettors to beat as no other sport is more picked apart and looked at closer by the fans/media than the NFL. If you find yourself having the same opinion of an NFL team as everyone else then you most likely shouldn't be betting for or against that team. They say 95 percent of the NFL bettors will lose money betting it during the regular season. Thinking like everyone else is setting you up for failure when it comes to the NFL. Find good reasons to try and go against the public perception in the NFL as the betting public heavily influences the lines. The best strategy is to bet against the public in the NFL. So if you see a spread that is -4 at the beginning of the week then all week long all you hear is everyone saying how this team will win easily and if the -4 team and is now up to -7 on game day, it's a lot smarter to bet against this team as the value will come from taking the other side at +7.

MIKE DAVIS - The first thing you must remember in the NFL is this: last week doesn't matter. These athletes are so closely matched that one week's game has no bearing on the outcome of next week's game. Forget what you witnessed last week and handicap the games accordingly. Home-field advantage matters in the NFL, and teams traveling for Thursday night games have not fared well. I pay attention to the injury list, especially along the lines of scrimmage. One offensive linemen being out can affect the entire offensive line. Do not bet on mediocre quarterbacks on the road.

ALAN HARRIS - Bet against the public. This is paramount in the NFL more than any other sport. Working in various Las Vegas sports books over the past seven years has shown me this first hand. Information is now readily available on the web that wasn't around even five years ago, and it's fairly easy to find out what the public is on in various offshore sportsbooks. This info isn't as readily available for the Vegas books, so still having a few connections there certainly doesn't hurt things on our end. It's been noted for those that are behind the counter that if you just bet against the top five teams that the public has put into parlays by closing time on Saturday night you'd come out ahead at the end of the season. Now, like any system, this isn't foolproof. But being on the side the house needs, especially in the NFL, is never a bad thing. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

How To Handicap Football

VERNON CROY - The NFL is one of the toughest sports in the world to be successful betting at, and that is because the lines are usually very sharp. The oddsmakers spend more time than any other sport adjusting the lines because of the huge draw the NFL brings to the books. The books can't afford to be putting out weak lines, especially on featured games. The best tip I can give you when betting the NFL is to always - and I repeat always - buy the hook or half point on key numbers: 3.5, 7.5, 10.5, 14.5. Buy those points and this would give you 3, 7, 10, 14, and more times than not it will be the difference between losing or at least pushing because the lines are very tight. Also, almost always bet the public favorites as soon as the lines come out and non-public dogs closer to game time, so you get the best lines possible. The lines will change a lot with the action coming in during the week, so take advantage of this when you can.

Tony George - Remember one thing about the NFL: the line is everything. You are not betting teams or games, you are betting into a number. There are key numbers, or what we call fall numbers in the NFL. Those are numbers games are likely to land on in the final score. Numbers like 3, 6, 7 and 10 are numbers I do not want to be on. The value of a half a point over or under these key numbers depending on whom you are handicapping will be crucial. A three-point home underdog is not as nearly as attractive as a 3.5-point home dog. The value of a half a point in the NFL cannot be stressed enough, especially around these crucial numbers.

Scott Spreitzer - The best piece of advice I got from a Vegas sports bettor when I began my sports betting journey happened about 25 years ago, and I use it to this very day. Learn to make your own lines a week in advance. Let's say Pittsburgh is hosting the Ravens on October 15 after playing the Bengals on October 8. I make my line for the October 15 game before the game on October 8. I set my numbers on a Wednesday, eight days before the next NFL week is played. This will keep you from overreacting when teams play far from their norm. Learning to think like a bookmaker is the key to beating the books. This particular handicapping tool has been instrumental in my NFL success, including placing in the Top 20 in the Westgate NFL Super Contest. Remember, we bet on and against numbers, not teams.

Handicap Football Prediction

Here is a list of handicapping tips and picks from the other sports we offer:

Handicap Football Today Live

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